Pirates 2012: Don't Get Your Hopes Up, folks!

Pirate Closer Joel Hanrahan

Last year's Pirates finished 4th (I predicted 5th or 6th) in the NL Central with a 72-90 record. This was a professional-sports-record 19th consecutive losing season. However, the season was not without its high spots. With timely hitting, solid starts and finishes from Kevin Correia and Joel Hanrahan, respectively, the Bucs found themselves in first place on July 18th. In a bid to try to take advantage of the best opportunity they have had in years, Pirate management made their usual clumsy, incompetent, too-little-too-late type effort and by season's end fell back to 24 games out.

This year I'm predicting another 4th place finish, but several factors could make the team better or worse.

All Star Andrew McCutchen

First, the Pirates went out and added several vets with enough talent that if two or three pan out could make a big difference (A.J. Burnett, Erik Bedard, Nate McLouth, Clint Barmes, Casey McGehee, and Rod Barajas). Outfielder McLouth had some decent years with the Pirates before splitting for Atlanta three years ago but flopped badly there. Pitchers Burnett and Bedard have each had some good years but at 35 and 33 respectively, their best (which wasn't all that great to start with) may be behind them. Ditto Barmes and Barajas. (What went on with the Pirates and Ryan Doumit?)

Neil Walker

Second, improvement from the younger vets could help the team jump a place or two. Closer Joel Hanrahan finished the year with 40 saves and showed that he has what it takes to be a premier closer. Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen actually dropped off a little last year (McCutchen made up for it with better power numbers). Both will be in their fourth year and we could find out whether one or both will become top echelon players or slump into mediocrity. Of course the biggest disappointment was Pedro Alvarez. After hitting 16 home runs in a promising rookie year, Alvarez could manage only four home runs with a batting average just south of the Mendoza line in 2011.

Third, rookies, especially Matt Hague and Starling Marte may be ready to crack the lineup and help the team.

Fourth, with Albert Pujols heading west and Prince Fielder heading to the Motor City, the perennially competitive NL Central could be even more so.

Finally, for the most important factor in their success – MANAGEMENT! Last year I expressed concern with the newly-hired Pirate skipper. Clint Hurdle, however, handled himself well, exhibiting a realistic amount of enthusiasm both when the Pirates were winning and losing. Hurdle also showed good on-field decision-making skills. Much as I have came to like the new Bucco manager, it still begs the question, “Can he win?” With nine major league seasons under his belt, he still has only one winning season and a overall 606-715 W-L record.

As for the rest of the Pirate management team (Owner Robert Nutting, GM Neal Huntington, and President Frank Coonelly), it still remains to be seen whether they are anything other that the worst in sports.

I titled last year's prediction blog post, “Pirates 2011: It’s About The Owners STUPID,” and the title of this post could very well be “Pirates 2012: It’s About The Owners AGAIN.”